Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

Changes in the carbon concentrations and other soil properties of some Scottish agricultural soils: Evidence from a resampling campaign

The change in soil carbon (C) concentration, soil pH and major nutrients for approximately 1,000 topsoil sampled from on-farm experimental sites over a thirty-year period from 1950 to 1980 in north-east Scotland are summarized. This period coincided with increased agricultural intensification, which included regular liming and fertilizer additions. During 2017, 37 of these sites were resampled and reanlaysed. While pH and extractable phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) increased over this period, there was no detectable change in the percentage loss on ignition. Composite soil samples were taken by auger from a depth of 0–15 cm and compared with the corresponding archived samples collected at the initiation of each experiment. Analysis of these resampled soils indicated no significant change in soil carbon (C), although soil pH, extractable magnesium (Mg) and K and Nitrogen (N) concentrations were significantly greater (p < .001) but extractable soil P concentration was significantly less (p = .015) compared with the original samples. Even though measuring C concentration alone is a poor indicator of overall changes in soil C stocks, it does provide a relative quick “early warning” of C losses that would justify a more comprehensive measure of stocks.     

二氧化碳浓度升高对茶树生理代谢的影响及应对技术

大气中的二氧化碳(CO2)浓度升高是工业革命以来全球范围内最重要的生态变化之一,将直接影响植物的生长发育和代谢过程。尽管CO2浓度升高对粮食作物的影响已经得到了广泛的研究,但其对茶树等重要经济作物的影响却很少受到关注。本文回顾和总结了CO2浓度升高对茶树的初级代谢(包括光合作用、呼吸作用和碳氮代谢)和次级代谢的影响,并探讨了CO2浓度升高环境下茶叶生产过程中的应对技术,旨在为CO2浓度升高背景下茶树优质高产栽培提供一定的理论基础和科学依据。     

气候变化对呼伦贝尔草地地上生物量的影响

基于温、压、湿、风等主要气象资料,结合生长季逐月的地上生物量实测数据,分析气候变化及气候年型对牧草产量形成的影响,结果表明：（1）两站降水量呈波动变化,无明显的变化趋势;（2）额尔古纳和鄂温克的年均气温呈显著升高的趋势,气温倾向率分别为0.348℃/10 a、0.444℃/10 a,增温速率均明显高于同期中国东北地区,其中,鄂温克的增温速率高于中国增温最迅速的青藏地区;（3）额尔古纳和鄂温克潜在蒸散量呈波动升高的趋势;（4）两站湿润度呈显著的波动下降趋势,气候呈较明显的变干燥趋势;（5）湿润状况影响两站地上生物量形成,气候偏旱年草原地上生物量的形成会受到显著的抑制,两站草地地上生物量均与当月及上个月的湿润度指数呈线性回归关系。     

茂兰自然保护区森林景观格局变化分析

本文以2011年和2017的森林调查成果化数据为基础,依据不同优势树种组,采用景观格局指数法,从组成结构、斑块特征、景观异质性和空间分布4方面分析2011年和2017年茂兰自然保护区的森林景观格局及其变化。结果表明：林地面积增加了654.08 hm²；森林优势树种数量从15种增加至30种；景观面积(CA)最大的均为阔叶混交树种组,增加了1286.33hm²；斑块平均大小(MpS)最大的均为阔叶混交树种组,增加了471.80 hm²；面积加权的平均形状指数(AWMSI)和面积加权的平均分形指数(AWMPFD)最大值均为阔叶混交树种组；景观斑块边缘密度(ED)最大值均为阔叶混交树种组；阔叶混交树种组的平均最小距离(ENN)减少。从2011年2017年研究区的主要优势树种组阔叶混交树种组得以保护,这与人为干扰的减少有关。     

石灰岩山地4种林分空气细菌动态变化及其影响因素分析

为探索石灰岩山地不同林分类型中空气细菌的动态变化规律及其影响因素,筛选出抑菌效果较好的林分,选取徐州石灰岩山地4种典型林分为试验材料,采用自然沉降法研究林分中细菌含量的季节变化和日变化,同步监测温湿度、风速、PM2.5和空气负离子浓度,分析空气细菌含量及其之间的关系。试验结果表明:(1)细菌含量季节性变化表现为春季秋季夏季冬季,除冬季日变化呈现"早晚低,中午高"的变化趋势,其他季节表现为"早晚高,中午低";(2)不同林分类型空气细菌含量存在显著差异(P0.05),总体来看,苦楝林对细菌的抑制效果最好;(3)细菌含量与空气湿度和PM2.5呈极显著正相关关系,与空气负离子呈极显著的负相关关系。综上,苦楝林的抑菌效果最好,湿度、PM2.5和负离子是影响空气细菌含量的主要因素。本研究可为此地城市保健林的营建以及生态旅游规划提供科学依据。     

8℃相变蓄冷技术

指出了自“十二五”规划以来,可持续发展和能源结构转型成为我国政府工作的重中之重,合理利用能源为人类社会创造更加美好的现代生活已经成为社会的共识。蓄冷技术能够按需实现能量的存储和释放,从宏观上起到“移峰填谷”平衡电网的作用;我国电力系统实行分时计价政策,从微观上可以利用峰谷电价差为用户节省制冷系统的运行费用。8℃相变蓄冷技术兼备了传统水蓄冷和冰蓄冷的优点,具有蓄冷密度大、系统简单的突出优点,是当前蓄冷技术研究和应用的前沿方向,市场前景十分广阔。     

Metabolic rates from Bluntnose minnow (Pimephales notatus) populations at lower latitudes are more sensitive to changes in temperature than populations at higher latitudes

Predicting the potential effects of changes in climate on freshwater species requires an understanding of the relationships between physiological traits and environmental conditions among populations. While water temperature is a primary factor regulating metabolic rates in freshwater ectotherms, how metabolic rates vary across the species range is unclear. In addition, photoperiod has also been hypothesised to influence metabolic rates in freshwater taxa based on seasonal changes in activity rates. Using an experimental approach, we investigated whether variation in routine metabolic rate (RMR) and sensitivity of RMR to changes in temperature are correlated with local thermal regimes, photoperiods and body mass among ten populations across the geographic range of the Bluntnose minnow (Pimephales notatus), a North American freshwater fish species. Routine metabolic rate data were collected from populations acclimatised to three temperature treatments (9, 18 and 27°C) and correlated with water temperature and photoperiod estimates at collection locations for each population. Routine metabolic rate was negatively correlated with minimum photoperiod at 9°C, negatively correlated with weekly high temperature at 18°C and positively correlated with weekly high temperature at 27°C. Body mass was also a predictor of RMR at each temperature treatment. Thermal sensitivity of RMR was positively correlated with weekly high temperature, indicating that individuals from warmer low latitude populations experienced greater sensitivity of RMR to changes in temperature than individuals from cooler high latitude populations. These results indicate differential responses among populations to variation in temperature and suggest the importance of recognising this variation when characterising responses of freshwater taxa to increases in water temperature.     

痕量灌溉对棉花花铃期光合性能日变化及产量的影响

【目的】明确痕量灌溉方式在干旱区灌溉棉田的适用性。【方法】本研究以中棉所92为供试材料,系统监测了痕量灌溉不同埋管深度30 cm(D30)、40 cm(D40)和50 cm(D50)和膜下滴灌(CK)4个处理的棉花花铃期光合日变化及产量效应。【结果】①不同处理下净光合速率和气孔导度的日变化均呈双峰曲线变化趋势,且D30处理各时段的净光合速率和气孔导度均高于其他处理。②不同处理下的胞间CO2摩尔分数日变化均呈广口"V"字形双峰曲线变化趋势,蒸腾速率日变化均呈单峰曲线变化趋势,最大值出现在14:00h。③D30处理的2年平均籽棉产量和平均皮棉产量最高,分别为5 734.28和2 454.53 kg/hm^2,其中籽棉产量分别比CK、D40和D50处理高出1.09%、7.63%和11.38%,皮棉产量分别比CK、D40和D50处理高出3.49%、8.32%和1.61%。【结论】综合光合性能日变化和产量分析得出,内蒙古阿拉善地区采用埋管深度为30 cm的痕量灌溉技术为最佳。